Wildcard Weekend - Quick Picks

Last season, I did a test-run against Vegas odds on NFL picks. Luckily, I decided to do so without wagering real money...as the results were not pretty. I finished well under the 50% break-even barrier, despite putting a fair amount of research and analysis into the cause.

So this year I took the opposite approach, basically going to the quick-click-pick technique. Again I decided not to put down any real money. Only this time, I finished 13 games over the break-even point (about 53%). Not exactly cash city, but at least I can say that I would have beat Vegas. Kinda.

And I’d venture to say that would probably even beat the “experts” on the Fox pre-game show…who don’t usually fare too well on their picks even without using Vegas odds. That’s right, Bradshaw…I’m calling you out.

So keeping with the trend, I’ll continue the quick picks for the playoffs. Wildcard weekend, here we go:

New Orleans (-10.5) @ Seattle

The Seahawks lost their way into the playoffs, dropping 3 of their last 4 before taking out St. Louis in the final week. Seattle hasn’t seen a loser like this since Shawn Kemp was in a Sonics uniform.

My pick: New Orleans to cover the spread, and then some

New York Jets @ Indianapolis (-2.5)

I’ve been brainwashed to think you can’t pick against Peyton Manning on home turf, so I’ll just go with that. Plus, I’m just tired of the season-long hype over the Jets.

My pick: Colts

Baltimore (-3) @ Kansas City

Nobody beats Charlie Weis after a home-cooked meal. Nuff said.

My pick: Chiefs in a close one

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-2.5)

I hope I’m wrong about this one, but I think the Eagles are in trouble here. Just like last year, Philly had a chance to wrap up a first-round bye…but couldn’t get it done. The Eagles have had plenty of problems in the secondary as of late, and it won’t get any easier with Aaron Rodgers coming to town.

My pick: Green Bay wins, Philly fans boo

And that brings me to my final point, the Eagles are who we thought they were (cue Dennis Green rant).

The perception around the league is that Michael Vick has single-handedly revamped the Eagles, and the controversial move to ship McNabb out of town was sheer Andy Reid genius. Granted, Vick has rejuvenated his career (and life) with an incredible season…while Donovan pretty much stunk up with the Skins. Point taken.

But the reality is that the Eagles were 11-5 last year with McNabb, and 10-6 this year with Vick. As they say, one player doesn’t make a team…especially in football.

Not that stats tell the whole story, but here is something worth noting:

Donovan McNabb (2009-10): 14 games, 3553 passing yards, 22 TD’s, QB rating of 92.9

Mike Vick (2010-11): 12 games, 3018 passing yards, 21 TD’s, QB rating of 100.2

Obviously that doesn’t factor in Vick’s running ability, but the end results are strikingly similar. Surround a capable quarterback with top-tier talent, and you get positive results. Send a capable quarterback to Washington, and you get a Mike Shanahan shit-sandwich.

There is no question that Mike Vick has been a great fit in Philly, though as an Eagles’ fan and Vickweed critic…that’s tough for me to admit. All year long I’ve watched quietly as Vick took over the team…happy to watch them win, but unable to root for him 100%. He’s improved as a passer, a player, and a person. Good for him, but that still doesn’t make him my hero.

And as dangerous as the Eagles are, they are still somewhat flawed. They can strike quick on offense, but struggle to sustain long drives and control the clock. Their defense is even more problematic, with an underwhelming group of linebackers and an underachieving secondary. And all things considered, that leaves them in the roughly the same place they were a year ago.

But then again, I’ve been wrong before. Quite often, actually. We’ll see how wildcard weekend goes…